Deep Value · Accumulation · Expansion · Risk Rising · Euphoria
WHERE BITCOIN IS RIGHT NOW
Reading the cycle…
The ARC Index condenses trend, drawdown, sentiment and liquidity into one score so you know whether to accumulate, hold, or take risk off.
BTC PRICE
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FEAR & GREED
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CYCLE PHASE
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MOMENTUM (30D)
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One transparent formula — no black box · Primary data: Kraken · Federal Reserve · Fear & Greed · Auto-updating · No wallet, no sign-up to view
TODAY'S READ
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ENGINE 1 · THE COMPOSITE
What drives the score
The ARC Index is one transparent formula: four independent signals, each scored 0–100, then weighted into a single number. Lower = historically safer, higher = historically riskier.
TREND35%
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Price vs the 200-week moving average. Low = far below the mean (historically cheap).
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DRAWDOWN30%
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Distance from the all-time high. Low = deep drawdown (historically opportunity).
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SENTIMENT20%
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The crypto Fear & Greed Index. Low = extreme fear (contrarian-bullish).
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LIQUIDITY15%
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Fed net liquidity impulse (WALCL − TGA − RRP), as a normalised 0–100 score. High = liquidity expanding.
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this cycle → today · score 0–100 (higher = more risk) vs BTC price
ENGINE 2 · DECISION
Your move, by the rule
The backtested rule in one line: buy extreme fear, sell extreme greed, hold the middle. Here's exactly what it says today. Educational, not financial advice.
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YOUR MOVE NOW · ARC –
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TARGET ALLOCATION · ADAPTIVE LADDER
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You stay in control — this is an educational signal, never an order. No wallet, no automation. Structure before emotion.
ACCUMULATE
BUY THE DIP
40% at ARC ≤ 38 · go 100% at the bottom (ARC ≤ 20, or once a dip under 25 recovers)
MID-CYCLE
HOLD
stay invested through the middle — don't churn
TAKE PROFIT
SELL IN STEPS
50% at ARC ≥ 72 · the rest at ARC ≥ 80
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ENGINE 2B · LIVE DEMO ACCOUNT
Run the rule on your own money
Pick any start date and starting amount — the account value, the chart and every trade recalculate instantly. It is the exact same fixed rule, applied to your scenario. Default: $10,000 from 2021.
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START DATE
STARTING CAPITAL ($)
ACCOUNT VALUE
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HODL · SAME START
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CURRENTLY INVESTED
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TRADE LOG · EVERY MOVE
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Hypothetical, in-sample track record on daily data; uninvested cash earns ~4%/yr. Educational, not financial advice.
THE PROOF · ARC vs HODLSHOW ▸
$10,000 since 2017 — the rule $550k vs HODL $142k
If you'd followed the adaptive ladder — buy 40% at ARC ≤38, go 100% at the bottom (ARC ≤20 or once a dip under 25 recovers), take profit 50% at ARC ≥72 and the rest at ≥80 — versus buying and holding Bitcoin the whole way. Same asset, same start. Backtested on daily data since August 2017. (tap to expand)
ALPHACYCLE RULE
$550k
55× · max drawdown −48%
BUY & HOLD
$142k
14× · max drawdown −84%
EDGE
3.8×
more money, far less risk
It buys only when Bitcoin is genuinely cheap (≈ once a cycle), sits mostly in cash through bear markets (uninvested cash earns ~4%), and takes profit in steps near euphoria. In-sample backtest over ~2 cycles — illustrative, not a guarantee; past performance does not guarantee future results — educational, not financial advice.
ENGINE 3 · TRACK RECORD
What each zone has returned, historically
Average 12-month forward BTC return after entering each zone, from confirmed zone entries since 2017. Your current zone is highlighted.
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ENGINE 4 · CYCLE CLOCK
Where we are in the cycle
ARC measures risk; the cycle clock measures time & structure — how far we are from the last top and how deep the drawdown is.
CYCLE PHASE
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from the cycle anchor (not ARC)
DAYS SINCE TOP
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last top
DRAWDOWN FROM ATH
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all-time high
ARC PERCENTILE
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vs all history
ENGINE 5 · NEAR-TERM
Momentum & timing
The weekly RSI is the big-picture momentum signal — its extremes are rare and meaningful. Faster daily setups add short-term timing. The ARC Index stays the primary signal; these add texture.
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WEEKLY RSI · BIG PICTURE
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TODAY · FASTER TIMING
DAILY RSI (14)
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025 · oversoldoverbought · 75100
Two daily setups — a fast 7-day RSI plus a trend filter. They only light up when the odds are genuinely high:
⚡ DIP · BUY SETUP
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RSI-7 oversold while above the 200-day average — a dip inside an uptrend (expect a bounce).
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⚡ FADE · CAUTION SETUP
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RSI-7 overbought while below the 200-day average — a failed bounce in a downtrend (expect a pullback).
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OTHER OSCILLATORS · CONTEXT ONLY
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ENGINE 6 · CYCLE WAVE
Are we rising or falling in the cycle?
The dominant rhythm detected in the price — a best-fit cycle laid over the real chart and projected forward, like a seasonality wave. It shows whether we're in the up- or down-swing now and roughly when the next turn is due. A detected rhythm, not a price prediction.
RIGHT NOW
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NEXT TURN
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DOMINANT CYCLE
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PriceCycle forecast (projection)Dominant cycle
ENGINE 6B · SEASONALITY
When Bitcoin tends to be strong or weak
From 13 years of daily prices: where we are in the 4-year halving cycle, plus the only calendar months reliable enough to trust (up or down in ≥70% of years). Everything else is hidden as noise. Context, not a trade signal.
HALVING CYCLE
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STRONGEST MONTH
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WEAKEST MONTH
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NEXT 90 DAYS
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AVERAGE RETURN BY MONTH · since 2013
Green = up months, red = down · brighter bar = reliable (same direction in ≥70% of years) · hover for win-rate.
ENGINE 6C · CYCLE EXTREMES
Three time-tested top/bottom gauges
Three simple "thermometers" built from Bitcoin's own long-term averages. Each one has reliably flagged when Bitcoin got too hot (a top) or too cheap (a bottom) in past cycles. Green = cheap, red = overheated. The bar shows how far we are from the danger zone. They're a second opinion that should agree with the ARC score.
PI CYCLE TOP
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how far above a classic top signal we are
MAYER MULTIPLE
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price ÷ its 200-day average — under 1 = cheap, over ~2.4 = hot
200-WEEK MA
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how far above the bear-market price floor we sit
ENGINE 7 · 10-YEAR HISTORY
The ARC Index across every cycle
Daily ARC score (line) against BTC price (area) since 2017. The faint bands mark the five regime zones — watch how tops landed in red and bottoms in green.
scroll chart = zoom time · scroll price axis = zoom price · drag to pan · tap legend
When ARC crosses a zone boundary, that's the signal that matters. Here's every recent shift, dated, with the stance it implied — ACCUMULATE and HOLD in the lower zones, REDUCE and TAKE PROFIT up top. The historical returns behind each zone are in the Track Record above; this is the live signal log — exactly what Pro alerts you to the moment it happens.
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PRO · COMING SOONEmail + Telegram alerts the moment the regime changes & on bottom-formation signals. Free for everyone during launch.
Get the weekly ARC Report
Every Sunday: the cycle read + the macro that matters, in a 5-minute email. Free during launch.
AlphaCycle provides market data and historical analysis for educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment or trading advice. Cryptocurrency is volatile and you can lose money. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
