AlphaCycle — Know Where Bitcoin Is in the Cycle

The Proof

$10,000 since 2017 — the rule vs just holding.

The adaptive ladder: buy 40% when Bitcoin is cheap, go 100% at the bottom, take profit in steps near euphoria. Backtested on daily Bitcoin data since August 2017.

ARC RULE

$550k

55× · −48% drawdown

HODL

$147k

14.7× · −84% drawdown

EDGE

3.7×

more money, far less risk

In-sample backtest over ~2 cycles (illustrative, not a guarantee) · buys only when Bitcoin is genuinely cheap · sits in cash through bear markets · past performance does not guarantee future results · educational, not financial advice

Live Track Record

A real account, running since 2021.

Not a cherry-picked backtest — a $10,000 demo started at a cycle top in 2021 that follows the exact rule, updates daily, and shows every dated move. In the dashboard you can set your own start date and amount.

ACCOUNT VALUE

$56k

5.6× · since 2021

JUST HOLDING

$21k

2.1× · same start

INVESTED NOW

40%

by the rule, today

EVERY MOVE, DATED

Loading the live track record…

See it live in the dashboard →

Hypothetical, in-sample demo on daily data · uninvested cash earns ~4% · educational, not financial advice.

The Problem

Cycle tops are obvious — in hindsight.

Emotion peaks at exactly the wrong moments. AlphaCycle gives you structure instead.

Without a framework

Tops and bottoms only feel clear after they've happened.

News and Twitter create noise, not signal.

Most dashboards show data — not a decision.

With AlphaCycle

One score. One dashboard. One decision framework.

See the regime at a glance — green means opportunity, red means danger.

One transparent number replaces fifty conflicting charts.

Built to answer one question: where are we, right now?

Features

Everything you need to read the cycle.

Four engines, combined into one decision-ready score.

ARC Index

One score, 0–100, that captures the entire cycle in a single glance.

5 regime zones

Decision Engine

Regime-based positioning: accumulate, hold, or take risk off — never a blind buy/sell.

Accumulate · Hold · Reduce

Multi-Factor Analysis

Trend, drawdown, sentiment and liquidity — weighted and combined into one number.

35 / 30 / 20 / 15

Backtest-Validated

Every major cycle top and bottom since 2017 — classified by the model, not predicted.

Since 2017 · transparent

How It Works

From raw data to a clear decision.

Three steps. Zero emotion.

STEP 01

We aggregate the data

Price, on-chain trend, drawdown, the Fear & Greed Index and Fed liquidity — pulled live from primary sources.

STEP 02

ARC scores the cycle

One transparent formula blends the four signals into a single 0–100 score and assigns the current regime zone.

STEP 03

You make better decisions

Know instantly whether the structure favours accumulating, holding, or taking risk off — without second-guessing.

Why AlphaCycle

A number is not a decision.

Other tools hand you a score, or fifty charts, and leave the hard part to you. AlphaCycle gives you the score, the rule, and the proof — in one place.

AlphaCycle★ RECOMMENDED

CBBI

BM Pro

One clear 0–100 cycle score

✓

~50 charts

An actual buy / hold / sell rule

✓

✗

Live demo account (real track record)

✓

✗

Plain-English daily read

✓

✗

expert-level

Price

Free / $29

Free

$29/mo

Comparison reflects publicly available features as of 2026 · names are trademarks of their owners.

Pricing

Start free. Upgrade when it pays for itself.

Everything is free during launch — no credit card required.

Monthly

Yearly Save 20%

FREE

Forever

Live ARC score & zone
Live BTC / ETH prices
Historical zone returns
Daily updates

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Questions, answered.

What is the ARC Index?+

ARC — the AlphaCycle Risk Composite — is a single 0–100 score that classifies where Bitcoin sits in its market cycle, across five regime zones from Deep Value to Euphoria.

How is the score calculated?+

One transparent formula blends four signals: the 200-week trend (35%), drawdown from the all-time high (30%), the Fear & Greed Index (20%) and Fed net liquidity (15%). Same method, every day, backtested to 2017.

Is this financial advice?+

No. AlphaCycle measures structural risk — it does not predict price or tell you to buy or sell. It is educational and informational only. Always do your own research.

What data sources do you use?+

Bitcoin price and OHLC from Kraken, sentiment from the Fear & Greed Index, and liquidity from the Federal Reserve (WALCL, TGA, RRP). All primary, public sources.

How accurate is the model?+

Every major cycle top and bottom since 2017 falls in the expected zone in backtest. ARC lags by design — it measures the present accurately rather than guessing the future.

Would following ARC have beaten just holding?+

In backtest, by a wide margin. The adaptive ladder — accumulate when ARC is cheap, scale to fully invested near the cycle bottom, and take profit in steps as it approaches euphoria — turned $10,000 into roughly $550,000 since 2017, versus about $147,000 for buy-and-hold, at −48% max drawdown instead of −84%. This is an in-sample backtest (the edge holds across a wide range of thresholds, not one magic number); past performance does not guarantee future results.

How is this different from free tools like CBBI?+

Free indices hand you a number and leave the hard part — what to actually do — to you. AlphaCycle adds the missing half: a transparent buy/hold/sell rule, a live demo account with a real dated track record, and a plain-English daily read. The score is free; Pro sells the decision.

Do I need a wallet or to connect funds?+

No. AlphaCycle never touches your coins, keys or exchange. It is a read-only signal you check — nothing to connect, nothing at risk.

I'm a beginner — is this for me?+

Especially. The whole point is one number plus a plain-English "today's read," so you don't need to decode fifty charts. If you can read a speedometer, you can read ARC.

Can I cancel anytime?+

Yes — Pro is monthly with no lock-in, cancel anytime. And during launch, everything is free.

Know where Bitcoin
is in the cycle.