Bitcoin Cycle Indicators

Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average

Across every cycle, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average has acted like a floor — the line bear markets rarely close below. Here is why, and where we stand today.

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What it is

The 200-week moving average (200W MA) is the average closing price of Bitcoin over the last 200 weeks — roughly four years, which neatly spans one halving cycle. Because it averages so much data, it moves slowly and smoothly.

Why it matters

Historically, Bitcoin’s deepest bear-market bottoms have formed at or just below the 200-week MA, then bounced. It has acted as a long-term floor — which is why it is the heaviest-weighted input in the ARC Index (35%).

What it is telling us now

The live distance above the 200-week MA is on the dashboard (Engine 6C). A small percentage above the line means we are near historically cheap territory; a very large percentage means the market is extended.

The ARC Index turns this distance into a 0–100 "Trend" score and blends it with three other signals — so you get the floor’s message in the context of the whole cycle.

How far is Bitcoin from its floor?

The 200-week MA is the single most important long-term trend line. ARC weights it at 35%.

Check the live ARC score →

FAQ

Why is the 200-week moving average important for Bitcoin?
It has acted as a long-term price floor across every major cycle — bear markets have historically bottomed near it, making it a key value reference.
Has Bitcoin ever closed below its 200-week MA?
Only briefly, at the deepest points of major bear markets (e.g. 2015, 2020, 2022) — those moments have historically been generational value zones, not the norm.
How is the 200-week MA used in ARC?
It is the trend signal and the single heaviest input — 35% of the ARC Index — measuring how far price sits above its long-term floor.