Bitcoin Cycle Indicators
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, explained
The Pi Cycle Top is one of the most famous Bitcoin top-spotting tools. Here is exactly how it works, its track record, its blind spots — and what the wider cycle looks like today.
What it is
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator compares two moving averages of Bitcoin's price: the 111-day moving average and twice the 350-day moving average. When the faster 111-day line crosses above the slower 2× 350-day line, the market has historically been at or very near a cycle top.
The name comes from the ratio 350 ÷ 111 ≈ 3.153, close to pi (π) — a coincidence that stuck.
Its track record
- Marked the 2013 top within days.
- Marked the December 2017 top within days.
- Marked the April 2021 top closely.
That is a remarkable hit rate for a single, simple, price-only signal — which is why traders watch it every cycle.
What it is telling us now
The live gap between the two lines is shown on the AlphaCycle dashboard (Engine 6C). A large positive gap means we are far from a Pi Cycle top; a cross means caution. As of today, read the live ARC score above for the full-cycle context.
The blind spots
- It only flags tops, not bottoms.
- It can fire late or not at all in a muted cycle — the post-ETF 2024–25 run, for example, stayed too gentle to trigger it cleanly.
- It is price-only — it ignores sentiment, liquidity and drawdown.
That last point is why AlphaCycle doesn't rely on any single indicator. The ARC Index blends the 200-week trend, drawdown, the Fear & Greed Index and Fed liquidity into one transparent 0–100 score — so no one signal can mislead you.
See where Bitcoin sits in the cycle now
Pi Cycle is one signal. AlphaCycle blends four into a single 0–100 score and a clear decision.
Check the live ARC score →FAQ
- Is the Pi Cycle Top accurate?
- It has marked the 2013, 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin cycle tops within days, but it only signals tops, can fire late, and uses price alone. Treat it as one input, not a standalone trade signal.
- What is the Pi Cycle formula?
- It plots the 111-day moving average against twice the 350-day moving average of Bitcoin price. A cross of the 111-day above the 2× 350-day marks the top zone.
- Does Pi Cycle work for bottoms?
- No. A separate variant (the Pi Cycle Bottom) exists, but the classic indicator only identifies cycle tops.