Bitcoin Cycle Indicators
The Mayer Multiple, explained
One of the simplest value gauges in Bitcoin: how stretched is the price versus its own 200-day average? Here is how to read it and what it signals today.
What it is
The Mayer Multiple is simply Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average. It tells you, in one number, how far above or below its long-term trend Bitcoin is trading.
How to read it
- Below 1.0 — price is under its 200-day average. Historically cheap; deep-value territory.
- Around 1.0–2.4 — a normal, healthy trend.
- Above ~2.4 — historically overheated; the zone where past cycles ran hot.
- Above ~3.5 — extreme; rarely sustained.
The "2.4" level became famous because, historically, buying only when the Mayer Multiple was below it improved long-term returns versus buying blindly.
What it is telling us now
The live value sits on the AlphaCycle dashboard (Engine 6C), with a colour bar showing how close we are to the hot zone. Check the live ARC score above for the full picture.
The Mayer Multiple measures one thing — price stretch. The ARC Index combines it with drawdown, sentiment and liquidity, so a single stretched (or cheap) reading can't fool you on its own.
Is Bitcoin cheap or expensive right now?
The Mayer Multiple is one lens. The ARC Index gives you the whole cycle in one number.
Check the live ARC score →FAQ
- What is a good Mayer Multiple to buy?
- Historically, accumulating when the Mayer Multiple is below ~1.0–1.5 has lined up with cycle value zones. Above ~2.4 has marked overheated conditions. It is context, not a trade trigger.
- How is the Mayer Multiple calculated?
- Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average. A value of 2 means price is twice its 200-day average.
- Is a Mayer Multiple under 1 bullish?
- It means Bitcoin is trading below its long-term average — historically a cheap, deep-value condition, though it can stay there in bear markets.