Bitcoin Cycle Indicators
The MVRV Z-Score, explained
One of the most respected on-chain valuation gauges. It asks: is the market paying far more (or less) than the average holder paid?
What it is
MVRV compares market value (price x supply) to realized value (what coins last moved at — roughly aggregate cost basis). The Z-Score standardises that gap so extremes are easy to spot.
How to read it
- High Z-Score (red) — market paying far above cost basis; historically near tops.
- Low / negative (green) — price below aggregate cost basis; historically generational bottoms.
Why it matters
When price is far above what the average holder paid, unrealised profit is huge and selling temptation is high — classic top conditions. The reverse marks capitulation.
ARC captures the same cheap-vs-expensive idea via drawdown and the 200-week trend, balanced with sentiment and liquidity.
FAQ
- What is a good MVRV Z-Score to buy?
- Historically, low or negative Z-Scores (price near or below aggregate cost basis) have marked deep-value bottoms. High readings have marked tops.
- What does MVRV stand for?
- Market Value to Realized Value — the ratio of Bitcoin price to the aggregate price at which coins last moved.
- Is MVRV Z-Score reliable?
- It is one of the more respected on-chain valuation gauges, but like all single indicators it works best combined with others.