Bitcoin Cycle Indicators
The Puell Multiple, explained
An on-chain classic: when miners are starved, bottoms form; when they are flush, tops form. Here is how to read it.
What it is
The Puell Multiple divides Bitcoin's daily miner revenue (USD) by its 365-day average. It shows whether miners earn unusually little or much versus their own recent norm.
How to read it
- Low (below ~0.5) — miner capitulation; historically near cycle bottoms.
- Normal (0.5-2) — healthy.
- High (above ~4) — miners flush with profit; historically near tops.
Why it works
Miners are forced sellers — they must cover costs in fiat. When revenue collapses, weak miners capitulate and selling exhausts itself, which has historically coincided with price bottoms.
A useful bottom-spotter, but one input. The ARC Index blends trend, drawdown, sentiment and liquidity into one 0-100 score.
Where is Bitcoin in the cycle now?
The Puell Multiple is one angle. The ARC Index gives the whole cycle in one number.
Check the live ARC score →FAQ
- What does a low Puell Multiple mean?
- It means miner revenue is far below its yearly average — miner capitulation, which has historically clustered around Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
- How is the Puell Multiple calculated?
- Daily miner revenue in USD divided by the 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue.
- Is the Puell Multiple a buy signal?
- Low readings have lined up with value zones historically, but it is context, not a standalone trade trigger.