Bitcoin Cycle Analysis
When to sell Bitcoin, without the guesswork
Selling is the hardest part. Emotion peaks exactly when you should be trimming. Here is a transparent, rules-based way to think about it.
The problem with selling on feeling
Euphoria peaks at tops; fear at bottoms. Selling on emotion usually means selling at the worst time. A rule removes the feeling.
A simple, transparent framework
AlphaCycle's tested rule takes profit in steps near euphoria, not all at once: trim part of the position when the ARC Index reaches its high-risk zone, and the rest as it pushes into euphoria. In backtest since 2017 this beat buy-and-hold with far smaller drawdowns.
- ARC under 40 — accumulation, not a sell.
- 40-70 — hold; don't churn the middle.
- 72+ — start taking profit in steps.
- 80+ — euphoria; historically the expensive end.
Read the live ARC score above. The full rule and a live demo account are on the
dashboard.
See the live sell zone
ARC tells you, in one number, whether the structure favours holding or taking risk off.
Check the live ARC score →FAQ
- When should I sell Bitcoin?
- A rules-based approach trims in steps as risk rises — partial profit when a cycle risk score reaches its high zone and the remainder near euphoria, rather than calling the exact top.
- Should I sell all my Bitcoin at once?
- Historically, scaling out in steps near the top captured more upside than an all-or-nothing exit, while still de-risking.
- How do I know if Bitcoin is near a top?
- Watch multiple signals together — the ARC Index combines them into one 0-100 score; readings in the high-risk zone have marked late-cycle conditions.